2025 Retailer Outlook as Consumer Confidence Slips and Home Sales Rise

Originally published January 29, 2025. This version was rebuilt from The Conference Board, the National Association of Realtors and Ethan Allen's results for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

Late January 2025 gave retailers a mixed read on the year ahead. Consumers were a little less upbeat, home sales had finished 2024 on a stronger note, and a domestic furniture maker reported a profitable holiday quarter.

The short version

• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell 5.4 points to 104.1 in January.
• NAR said December existing-home sales rose 2.2% to 4.24 million, up 9.3% from a year earlier.
• Ethan Allen reported quarterly sales of $157.3 million and a 60.3% gross margin.

Confidence slips

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 104.1 in January from a revised 109.5 in December. The Present Situation Index dropped 9.7 points to 134.3, and the Expectations Index fell 2.6 points to 83.9, still above the recession signal of 80.

Retailers heading into 2025 expected cautious but steady demand. Confidence that slips without collapsing usually means shoppers keep buying but push harder for value and financing.

Home sales finish strong

NAR said existing-home sales rose 2.2% in December to 4.24 million, the strongest pace since February 2024 and 9.3% above a year earlier. The median price rose 6.0% to $404,400.

Home sales lead furniture purchases by a few months. A stronger December pointed to some lift in move-in demand during the first quarter, even with prices and mortgage rates still high.

A maker reports the holiday quarter

Ethan Allen reported consolidated net sales of $157.3 million, a 60.3% gross margin and an 11.5% operating margin for the quarter ended December 31. The company said it makes about 75% of its furniture in its own North American plants.

The company ended the quarter with total cash and investments of $184.2 million, up $16.4 million, and called its domestic manufacturing a major advantage in a challenging political and economic environment.

The outlook

Retailers entered 2025 with somewhat better housing data and softer confidence. Makers with domestic plants looked well placed if tariffs arrived.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back
• Move-In Furniture Tickets Are Drying Up

Sources

• The Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Index, January 2025
• National Association of Realtors, Existing-home sales, December 2024
• Ethan Allen, Fiscal 2025 second quarter results