Tariffs, Trucking, and Tight Space. The Pressure Points Ahead

Originally published October 17, 2025. This version was rebuilt from the Federal Register, NRF's holiday survey and the tariff proclamation for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

By mid-October 2025 the pressure on furniture was coming from several directions at once. Freight capacity, holiday demand and import costs were all moving, and not always in the same direction.

The short version

• An interim final rule on non-domiciled CDLs was expected to push most current holders out of trucking.
• NRF found shoppers planned to spend $890.49 each on the holidays.
• Duties on upholstered wooden furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities took effect October 14.

A smaller driver pool

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration published an interim final rule on September 29, 2025 that limited non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses to holders of a few specific visa types. FMCSA estimated that roughly 194,000 current non-domiciled CDL holders would exit the freight market as their licenses came up for renewal.

Furniture moves on trucks at nearly every step, from port to warehouse to the customer's door. A tighter driver supply tends to show up later in freight rates and delivery windows.

Update. FMCSA published a final rule on February 13, 2026.

Holiday budgets hold

NRF's annual survey found consumers planned to spend $890.49 per person on gifts, food, decorations and other holiday items, with $627.93 of that on gifts. NRF said that was the second-highest amount on record, even though most shoppers expected tariffs to push prices higher.

Tariffs reach furniture and building costs

Section 232 duties of 25% on certain upholstered wooden products and on kitchen cabinets and vanities took effect October 14. Cabinets and vanities feed straight into the cost of new homes and remodels, which in turn drive a share of furniture demand.

Update. The increases scheduled for January 2026 were delayed to January 1, 2027.

Where the pressure lands

Shoppers were still willing to spend, but moving and pricing furniture was getting harder. Retailers who locked in delivery capacity and set prices with tariffs in mind were in the best position for the season.

Related on FIN

• The Freight Mafia's New Playbook
• Furniture Delivery Fees Need a Fresh Look as Diesel Climbs

Sources

• Federal Register, Restoring integrity to the issuance of non-domiciled CDLs, interim final rule (Sept. 29, 2025)
• Federal Register, Restoring integrity to the issuance of non-domiciled CDLs, final rule (Feb. 13, 2026)
• National Retail Federation, Holiday consumer survey, October 2025
• The White House, Proclamation adjusting imports of timber, lumber and their derivative products (Sept. 29, 2025)
• The White House, Amendments to the timber and lumber proclamation (Dec. 31, 2025)