When Confidence Collapses. Inside the Industry's Toughest Week

Originally published June 27, 2025. This version was rebuilt from the Conference Board, Macy's first quarter results and BEA's May personal income and outlays report for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

Late June 2025 brought a sharp drop in how Americans felt about the months ahead. Department stores, which sell a lot of home goods, were already feeling it.

The short version

• The Conference Board's index fell to 93.0 in June, with expectations at 69.0.
• Macy's reported first-quarter comparable sales down 2.0% on an owned basis.
• BEA said consumer spending fell 0.1% in May, led by a drop in goods.

Confidence drops

The Conference Board said its index fell 5.4 points to 93.0 in June, and its expectations index fell to 69.0, well under the level of 80 that has historically signaled a recession ahead. Tariffs remained consumers' top concern.

Shoppers worried about the next six months tend to put off big-ticket purchases like furniture first.

Spending slips

BEA's report released June 27 showed personal consumption expenditures fell $29.3 billion, or 0.1%, in May. Spending on goods dropped $49.2 billion while services rose $19.9 billion, and personal income fell 0.4%.

Prices were not the problem. The PCE price index rose 0.1% for the month and 2.3% from a year earlier. The pullback in goods spending matched what the confidence survey showed, with households holding off on purchases they could delay.

Department stores struggle

Macy's, Inc. reported comparable sales down 2.0% on an owned basis for its first quarter. The company said it was reinvesting savings from closed locations into its remaining stores under its Bold New Chapter strategy.

A tough quarter

Consumers were nervous, goods spending fell and the large department stores were shrinking. Furniture retailers had to work harder to give hesitant shoppers a reason to buy now.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back
• Furniture Sales Got Revised Down. Consumers Got Gloomier.

Sources

• The Conference Board, Consumer confidence, June 2025
• Macy's, Inc., First quarter 2025 results
• U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal income and outlays, May 2025 (June 27, 2025)