Refund Checks Are Moving. So Is Store Traffic, in the Wrong Direction.

Originally published May 28, 2026. This version was rebuilt from primary sources for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

Three things lined up at the end of May. The government began paying back tariffs it should never have collected. Department stores found out how much they lean on one day of the week. And younger shoppers kept spending less outside the house and more of their time inside it.

The short version

• Customs told the trade court that about $20.6 billion in refunds had been certified and sent to Treasury by May 22.
• The refunds only come to importers who file for them, and a lot of filings were failing on paperwork.
• Section 232, Section 301 and antidumping duties were never part of the refund.
• Department stores got a big share of their visits on Saturdays, so a March with one fewer Saturday looked worse than it was.
• Younger households were spending less and staying home more, according to Circana.

The refund money is real, but you have to ask for it

The Supreme Court decided on February 20, 2026 that the emergency powers law known as IEEPA does not let the president set tariffs. That made the duties collected under it refundable. Customs opened a refund tool called CAPE inside its ACE portal on April 20.

By late May the dollars were moving. In a declaration filed with the Court of International Trade, Customs reported the $20.6 billion figure above, counting duties plus interest. The same filing listed why many submissions were being turned away. Importer numbers that didn't match, entry numbers that were wrong or didn't exist, and spreadsheets that didn't follow the template were the usual culprits.

For a furniture business that imports, nothing happens until the importer of record or its broker files the list of entries. Customs also pays refunds only by direct deposit, so bank details have to be on file first. Duties under Section 232, Section 301 and similar programs still applied, so a container of upholstery could see part of its duty come back and part stay put.

Retailers who bought landed goods from a vendor aren't the importer of record, so they don't file. They do have every reason to ask their vendors what happens to the money. We made that argument in Follow the Tariff Dollars.

Department stores live and die on Saturday

Placer.ai's spring look at department store foot traffic found that Saturday carried a bigger share of visits than it does for most other kinds of stores. March 2026 had one fewer Saturday than March 2025, and visits dipped across the group. April came back once the calendar lined up again. Placer's bigger point was a split between premium, service-heavy chains that held up and mid-market chains that kept slipping.

Furniture showrooms run on the same weekend rhythm. When a month is short a Saturday, compare it weekend to weekend before deciding something is broken.

Younger shoppers are spending at home

Circana reported that overall retail spending in April was down 1.6% from a year earlier, with Easter landing in March doing part of the damage. The more lasting part of the report was about younger consumers. Circana said they have been squeezed since early 2025 by living costs, a softer job market, card debt and student loan payments. They are cooking, entertaining and fixing things at home more, while older and better-off households are still doing much of the buying.

That's a furniture story even though it showed up in a grocery and general merchandise report. A household that hosts at home cares about the dining table and the sectional. It just may take longer to buy them and push harder on price.

Where this left the industry in late May

Money was starting to flow back to importers, but only to the ones who did the paperwork. Traffic was thinner and choosier. Stores that read their numbers against the calendar, and buyers who asked their vendors straight questions about refunds, were in better shape heading into summer.

Related on FIN

• Follow the Tariff Dollars
• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back

Sources

• Supreme Court of the United States, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287, opinion of Feb. 20, 2026
• U.S. Customs and Border Protection, IEEPA Duty Refunds (CAPE) program page
• Court of International Trade, Euro-Notions Florida v. United States, No. 25-00595, Declaration of Brandon Lord, May 26, 2026 (ECF 30)
• Placer.ai, The Department Store Divide, What's Working in 2026 (May 21, 2026)
• Circana, April 2026 retail sales release (May 26, 2026)