Mortgage Rates Jumped to 7.28%. Housing Still Drags Tickets.

Today's big number is the mortgage rate. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average printed 7.28%, up from 7.03% last week. That’s a sharp weekly move, and it keeps housing turnover under pressure for furniture. In the same window, Bassett reported a stronger fiscal third quarter with tariff-refund cash in the mix, Adobe put a furniture-specific holiday e-comm number on the board, Conference Board confidence fell again, and Realtor.com's September housing report showed more listings and deeper price cuts. Here's what you need to know.

In today's briefing:

Mortgage rates: 30-year at 7.28%, up from 7.03%; 15-year at 6.60%, up from 6.42%
Bassett Q3: sales $82.8M (+3.4%); EPS $0.24 vs $0.09; $2.8M IEEPA CBP refunds ($1.0M in Q3 GP)
Adobe holiday: U.S. online Nov-Dec $275.1B (+6.7%); furniture online $33.4B (+7.3%)
Conference Board Sep confidence: 81.9, down 6.7 from August; Expectations 63.6, third straight drop
Realtor.com Sep: ~1.16M active listings (+5.4% y/y); price reductions 20.8%; median list $419,250
Southern Motion: SOFA and schedules filed Sep 30; Keen-Summit hearing set for Nov 18

Housing

Mortgage rates jumped again. The 30-year is 7.28%.

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for Oct 1 put the 30-year fixed average at 7.28%, up from 7.03% the prior week. A year ago it was 6.34%. The 15-year rose to 6.60% from 6.42%.

What to do with it: Higher rates make closings harder, and every delayed closing is a delayed furniture order. Keep the focus on customers already in their homes. If a written order is tied to a pending close, treat the delivery date as contingent until the loan locks and the deal funds.

Manufacturing / Retail

Bassett's Q3 sales and profit rose, with tariff refunds in the mix.

Bassett Furniture reported fiscal third-quarter results for the period ended Aug 29. Consolidated sales were $82.8M, up 3.4% from a year ago. Diluted EPS was $0.24 versus $0.09. Operating income improved sharply. The company said it received $2.8M in IEEPA tariff refunds from CBP, with $1.0M recorded as a Q3 gross-profit increase and more expected in Q4. Written retail sales were up 4.4%, wholesale orders up 7.9%, and e-commerce written sales up 48%. Imports remain less than 25% of products. CEO commentary pointed to housing slowness and higher mortgage rates as an industry drag, and said the company plans more aggressive Black Friday promotions.

What to do with it: Separate the operating story from the refund story. The order and e-comm gains are real demand signals; the $2.8M CBP cash is working-capital relief, not a substitute for tickets. If you buy from Bassett or compete with them, watch how aggressive Black Friday pricing lands against your own promo margins. And if you are still waiting on IEEPA refunds of your own, treat Bassett's Q3 booking as proof cash can land in a furniture P&L, not as a guarantee your timing matches theirs.

Holiday Demand

Adobe sees furniture online at $33.4B this holiday season.

Adobe's holiday e-commerce forecast calls for about $275.1B in U.S. online sales from November through December, up 6.7% from last year. Inside that, the furniture category is projected at $33.4B online, up 7.3%. Adobe expects furniture discounts to peak around 18% off listed price, with the deepest furniture deals on Black Friday rather than Cyber Monday.

What to do with it: Put the furniture number on your holiday calendar, not just the total online figure. If you sell online or match online pricing, plan Black Friday as the furniture price war day and protect margin on the SKUs you cannot afford to give away. If you are mostly floor-driven, use the forecast as a traffic warning: shoppers will be hunting discounts that week, so make your in-stock value story and financing terms obvious before they compare you to an 18% web cut.

Consumer Confidence

Confidence fell hard in September. Furniture is still on the durables list.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index printed 81.9 in September, down 6.7 points from August's 88.6. The Expectations Index fell to 63.6, its third straight monthly decline. Present Situation also softened. On a six-month moving-average basis, furniture remained among the top durable goods consumers said they planned to buy. This is a different survey from the University of Michigan reading already covered last week.

What to do with it: Nervous shoppers still put furniture on the list. They need a clear reason to close. Lead with value, in-stock availability, and financing that is easy to understand. Do not read the confidence drop as "nobody is buying" when the durables wish list still names furniture. Read it as shoppers who will walk if the deal feels fuzzy.

Housing Inventory

More homes are listed, and sellers are cutting price.

Realtor.com's September housing report put active listings near 1.16 million, up 5.4% from a year ago. About 20.8% of active listings had a price reduction. The median list price was $419,250, down 1.4% year over year. Homes under contract (pending stock) were down 4.1% from last year.

What to do with it: More listings and more price cuts improve the shopping set for homebuyers, but pending stock is still soft and rates just jumped. Closings, and the furniture orders tied to them, can still slip. Treat delivery dates tied to a home purchase as uncertain until the deal closes, and keep selling to households already living with what they have.

Quick Hit

Southern Motion filed its Statement of Financial Affairs and bankruptcy schedules on Sep 30, the first material substance since the early docket housekeeping. A hearing on the Keen-Summit employment application is set for Nov 18 in Oxford, with responses due Oct 27. The creditors' meeting is still Oct 5, and the final DIP hearing is still Oct 7.

Bottom line

The 30-year mortgage average is 7.28%, and that keeps move-tied furniture demand under pressure even as listing inventory and price cuts look friendlier for buyers. Bassett's Q3 showed sales and profit up, helped by store and wholesale orders plus $2.8M in CBP tariff refunds, while e-comm written jumped hard. Adobe's holiday forecast puts furniture online at $33.4B. Confidence fell to 81.9, but furniture stayed on the planned-durables list. Watch Southern Motion through the Oct 5–7 court dates if that line sits on your floor. Sell value and certainty to people already in their homes, and build Black Friday around real promo math, not around a housing rebound this rate print does not support.

Mortgage Rates Jumped to 7.28%. Housing Still Drags Tickets.