Mixed Signals. Furniture Orders Rise While Manufacturing Struggles

Originally published September 4, 2025. This version was rebuilt from ISM, ADP and Macy's releases for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

The first reports of September 2025 sent mixed messages. Orders at factories improved, but production and hiring did not follow, and a big department store chain had a better quarter than expected.

The short version

• ISM's manufacturing PMI was 48.7 in August, a sixth month of contraction.
• Overall new orders moved back into growth, but furniture makers were still contracting.
• ADP first reported 54,000 private jobs added in August.
• Macy's reported its best comparable sales growth in 12 quarters.

Factories still contracting

ISM's August manufacturing PMI of 48.7 marked the sixth straight month of contraction. Its new orders index, though, rose to 51.4 and showed growth for the first time in seven months.

Furniture and related products was on ISM's list of industries contracting in August and was not among those reporting new order growth. The broader rebound in orders had not reached furniture yet.

Hiring slows

ADP said private employers added 54,000 jobs in August, well below the pace earlier in the year. Slower hiring tends to weigh on big-ticket household purchases a few months later.

Update. In its next report ADP revised August to a loss of 3,000 jobs.

Macy's beats expectations

Macy's, Inc. reported second-quarter comparable sales up 1.9% on an owned plus licensed plus marketplace basis, its best result in 12 quarters, and said sales and adjusted earnings beat its guidance. The stores it had been reinvesting in did better than the rest of the fleet.

Reading the signals

Orders were improving across manufacturing, but furniture lagged and hiring was cooling. Retailers that had invested in their stores were the ones finding growth.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Orders Rose 9%. Factories Still Aren't Hiring for It.
• Furniture Factories Made Less in September

Sources

• Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturing PMI report, August 2025
• ADP, National Employment Report, August 2025
• ADP, National Employment Report, September 2025
• Macy's, Inc., Second quarter 2025 results