Furniture Sales Dip, Housing Completions Climb, and a Steady Holiday Forecast

Originally published October 18, 2024. This version was rebuilt from the Census Bureau's retail and new residential construction reports and NRF's holiday forecast for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

The official September data confirmed what early card data suggested. Furniture stores had a weak month, even as the housing pipeline delivered plenty of finished homes.

The short version

• Census said furniture and home furnishings store sales fell 1.4% in September and were 2.3% below a year earlier.
• Census and HUD said September completions were 1,680,000, 14.6% above September 2023.
• NRF forecast holiday spending growth of 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023.

September sales dip

The Census Bureau's advance report showed furniture and home furnishings store sales down 1.4% in September from August and 2.3% below September 2023.

Furniture was falling while total retail and food services sales rose 0.4% to $714.4 billion, which pointed to category-specific weakness tied to housing turnover and big-ticket caution rather than a broad pullback.

Housing pipeline

Privately owned housing completions ran at an annual rate of 1,680,000 in September, 5.7% below August but 14.6% above a year earlier. Housing starts were 1,354,000, 0.5% below August.

That followed an August in which starts jumped 9.6% from July to 1,356,000. Completed homes are where furniture demand starts, so the strong pipeline was a bright spot.

Consumer purchasing plans

NRF forecast that holiday spending would grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023, to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in November and December.

NRF's chief executive said a strong job market and wage growth would support spending. For furniture, the question was whether shoppers would include big-ticket home items in their holiday budgets.

Implications for the industry

Furniture stores were lagging the rest of retail in September, but the supply of finished homes and a steady holiday outlook offered support for the months ahead.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Store Sales Fell 2.7%. Every Other Category Grew.
• Move-In Furniture Tickets Are Drying Up

Sources

• U.S. Census Bureau, Advance monthly retail sales, September 2024
• U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, New residential construction, September 2024
• U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, New residential construction, August 2024
• National Retail Federation, Steady sales growth expected for 2024 holiday season (Oct. 15, 2024)