Freight's a Mess, Tariffs Are Worse. But Sales Are Up (For Now)

Originally published April 16, 2025. This version was rebuilt from the Census Bureau's advance retail sales report, Executive Order 14266 and J.B. Hunt's results for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

Mid-April 2025 brought strong March sales numbers that everyone knew were borrowed from the future. Freight carriers were already seeing the other side of the tariff story.

The short version

• Census said March retail sales rose 1.4%, with furniture stores down 0.7% for the month but up 7.7% from a year earlier.
• The reciprocal tariff on China rose to 125% on April 10.
• J.B. Hunt reported operating income down 8% on revenue down 1%.

Shoppers buy ahead

The Census Bureau's advance estimate showed retail and food services sales up 1.4% in March to $734.9 billion, up 4.6% from a year earlier. Motor vehicle dealers led, up 8.8% from a year earlier, as buyers tried to beat tariff price increases.

Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.7% from February but up 7.7% from March 2024. The monthly dip suggests furniture was not part of the March rush, even though the yearly comparison looked strong.

Tariffs get worse

On April 9 the President raised the reciprocal tariff on China to 125% effective April 10, while pausing higher rates for other countries for 90 days. Other China tariffs already in place stacked on top, making most furniture from China uneconomic to import.

Update. In May the U.S. and China agreed to cut the China rate for 90 days.

Freight feels it

J.B. Hunt reported first-quarter revenue of $2.92 billion, down 1%, and operating income of $178.7 million, down 8%. Final Mile Services, which handles big and bulky home deliveries, made 15% fewer stops, while intermodal loads rose to 521,821 from 485,166.

Fewer final-mile deliveries pointed to softer demand for heavy goods like furniture and appliances heading into the spring.

Up for now

March sales were flattered by buying ahead of tariffs, and furniture did not share much of that lift. With China imports stalling and carriers seeing fewer deliveries, the second quarter looked tougher.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Store Sales Fell 2.7%. Every Other Category Grew.
• The Freight Mafia's New Playbook

Sources

• U.S. Census Bureau, Advance monthly retail sales, March 2025
• The White House, Executive Order 14266 (Apr. 9, 2025)
• The White House, Modifying reciprocal tariff rates to reflect discussions with China (May 12, 2025)
• J.B. Hunt Transport Services, First quarter 2025 results