Black Friday Boom, Tariff Talks, and Furniture Retail Resilience

Originally published December 11, 2024. This version was rebuilt from NRF releases, a company release and the president-elect's tariff statements for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

The 2024 holiday season opened with big crowds, a late Thanksgiving and a lot of talk about tariffs coming in the new year. For furniture, the crowds didn't translate into a strong November.

The short version

• Holiday weekend crowds were the second highest in NRF's survey history.
• The president-elect threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an extra 10% on China.
• Furniture store sales fell in November while overall retail grew, partly because the calendar pushed part of the holiday weekend into December.
• Hooker Furnishings reported lower sales and a loss, hurt in part by a customer's bankruptcy.

Crowds were back

The National Retail Federation estimated that 197 million people shopped from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. That was the second highest in the survey's history, behind the prior year's record of 200.4 million, and above NRF's initial expectation of 183.4 million.

NRF still expected holiday spending to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. Half of shoppers said they still had half their shopping left to do after the weekend, which left room for December sales.

Furniture lagged in November

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed furniture and home furnishings stores down 1.15% from a year earlier and down 0.8% from October, while core retail grew. NRF noted that two days of the Thanksgiving weekend fell in December that year, which pushed some spending into the next month.

Update. On December 17, 2024, the Census Bureau's advance report showed furniture stores up 0.7% from a year earlier, a kinder read than the early private data.

Tariff talk returns

On November 25 the president-elect said that on January 20 he would sign documents putting 25% tariffs on all products from Canada and Mexico. The same day he said China would face an additional 10% tariff above any existing duties.

Furniture companies buying finished goods or parts from any of the three countries now faced a cost risk on orders landing in 2025. Nothing had taken effect by mid-December, and the statements gave no detail on exemptions.

Hooker's customer problem

Hooker Furnishings reported third-quarter sales of $104.4 million, down 10.7%, and a net loss of $4.1 million. The company pointed to weak industry demand, sales lost to a customer bankruptcy and heavier discounting, with sales through furniture chains and independent stores down, while its hospitality business grew 8%.

That combination was common in 2024. Suppliers that leaned on a few big accounts felt every retail failure directly.

Where this left the industry in December 2024

Shoppers were out, but furniture was not yet a priority for their holiday dollars. With new tariffs threatened for early 2025, suppliers and retailers were heading into the new year cautious.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back
• Every Door in Town

Sources

• National Retail Federation, 197 Million Consumers Shop Over Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend, Dec. 3, 2024
• National Retail Federation, CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor for November 2024
• Hooker Furnishings, Third quarter fiscal 2025 results release
• The American Presidency Project, Statement threatening 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Nov. 25, 2024
• The American Presidency Project, Statement threatening 10% tariffs on China, Nov. 25, 2024
• U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report for November 2024, released Dec. 17, 2024 (update only)